May 21, 2020 An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. This update covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the nine named storms to date. Presented at AMS 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, April 2018.Goldenberg, S. B. and L. J. Shapiro, 1996: Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño and West African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. Conversely, La Niña, which refers to similar long periods with below average SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, typically enhances Atlantic hurricane activity.
NOAA: Hurricane FAQs National Hurricane Operations Plan WX4NHC Amateur Radio. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline. August 6, 2020 Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic, leading to what could be an “extremely active” season, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites. ENSO-neutral means no El Niño or La Niña.The CPC classifies ENSO events and their strength using the area-averaged SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region, an area of the east-central equatorial Pacific between 170°W- 120°W and 5°N-5°S. This outlook is based on 1) predictions of large-scale climate factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity, and 2) climate models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity. Since 1995, 17 of 25 (68%) seasons have been above normal (not counting 2020) and nine have been extremely active. Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead.
Here is a compilation of information that you can use before, during, and after the storm to have the most current forecasted weather conditions for your area, evacuation and shelter information, and available resources to help keep you safe. Based on the ACE projection, combined with the above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%, with only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon located over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of the overall activity predicted by this, or any other, seasonal outlook.Predicting the location, number, timing, and strength of tropical storm and hurricane landfalls are ultimately related to the daily weather patterns, storm genesis locations, and steering patterns. (NOAA)The 2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization. Such forecasts often have limited skill, especially when border-line El Niño or La Niña events are predicted.Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions. These tornadoes typically occur in rain bands well away from the center of the storm. Models now predict an even more active season than they did in May, along with a higher potential for an extremely active season.It only takes one storm hitting an area to cause a disaster.
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